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Capturing Asia’s dynamism

From the regional powerhouses of China and India to the flourishing markets of Southeast Asia, the region is set to be the driver of global growth in the years to come. With a rapidly expanding consumer class increasingly at home in the digital age, Asia’s emerging economies are expected to grow at more than 6% over the next few years, despite an uncertain global environment.

As an extended period of financial repression continues to put returns under pressure, Asia remains a region of relative opportunity. Capturing this opportunity means exploring the full universe of Asian assets, and tactically combining them in a multi-asset approach that is actively managed to maintain a triad of diversification, risk mitigation and return potential in a variety of market environments.

Healthy valuations, backed by strong corporate fundamentals and roots in a thriving region, make Asian equities a robust engine of capital growth. In the period between December 2000 and May 2018, the MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index’s net annualised returns rose 9.72% compared to 5.31% for the MSCI All Countries World Index. Given that bull markets in emerging economies last about 5.5 years on average, the current one, which began in January 2016, has ample room to run its course.

A blend of opportunities

All that said, a multi-asset approach recognises equities alone will not always provide optimal performance. Asian high yield bonds have become another important means to enhance returns. High yield bond1 fundamentals have improved markedly since the 2008 crisis, as stronger corporate balance sheets have brought down default rates. This is especially true of Asia where high yield default rates are among the lowest in the world. A virtuous cycle of growing investor demand for yield, combined with an increased confidence in emerging markets and Asian firms’ greater funding needs, is driving bond issuance in Asia to record levels.

Asian high yield bonds have proven to be an option to the source of improving income as well as growth, and though spreads have shrunk recently, improving corporate health is prolonging their performance. US dollar-denominated Asian high yield bonds generated an average yield of nearly 7% in 20172, compared to about 4% for US dollar-denominated Asian investment grade bonds and local currency bonds. Asian high yield bonds have consistently performed well in long-term with lower volatility, weathering various market downturns over the years from the subprime crisis in 2008 to the taper tantrums of 2013.

Despite concerns about a liquidity crunch and rising trade tensions, default rates are expected to stay relatively low in 2018, thanks to broad-based global growth and the measured pace of interest rate hikes by central banks worldwide.

Drawing on the full universe of Asian equities and corporate bonds, a multi-asset approach also factors in other asset classes, from alternatives to cash, and active management to achieve diversity and optimise the portfolio for a range of market scenarios. It also seeks diversity in terms of returns, by cultivating income as well as capital gains. It’s worth noting that between 1990 and 2017, although the performance of dividends was not guaranteed, as a contribution to total returns from Asian equities, it remained remarkably steady in this period. At the same time, investment options have expanded with the region. The universe of dividend-paying stocks with a market capitalisation of more than US$1 billion quintupled from 297 in December 2005 (44% of the Asia Pacific ex Japan universe) to 1,525 by September 2017 (88% of the Asia Pacific ex Japan universe).3

Due diligence

While Asian bonds and equities offer tremendous potential, investing in the region is fraught with hurdles for the underprepared. The range of investment options is vast and there are distinct regulatory environments to contend with. A varying spectrum of business drivers such as complex holding structures, corporate governance issues, as well as foreign exchange and political risks also bear consideration. The high yield universe is also home to higher risks, and allocations may need to be adjusted on the fly to keep the portfolio on course to meet its goals as market conditions change.

These realities mean a team of regional experts, equipped with qualitative and quantitative screens and in-depth proprietary research, is best suited to conduct the due diligence that should be the hallmark of any multi-asset investment strategy. Such a team can, through analysis of a range of internal and external growth drivers and risk factors, identify the right investments from an array of dividend-paying stocks and high yield bonds to build and manage a multi-asset portfolio that, even amid volatility, may successfully draws on Asia’s dynamism to mitigate risk and maximise both income and capital growth over the long term.

1 Investing in high-yield (non-investment grade and unrated) investments are normally associated with higher volatility, greater risk of loss of principal and interest, increased creditworthiness and downgrading risk, default risk, interest rate risk, general market risk and liquidity risk (for example, the asset cannot be sold or can only be sold at a significant discount to the purchase price).

2 Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan "J.P. Morgan Asia Credit Index", AllianzGI; as at 31 Dec 2017

3 Bloomberg, AllianzGI; as at 30 Sep 2017

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